Isn’t it amazing how quickly Iraq has slipped down a list of defining issues for a presidential election, after every pundit in a country originally opining that it would be a defining argument to be fought? Of course, since those pronouncements we’ve had Georgia & a progressively chillier disagreement with Russia, we’ve had Afghanistan & especially Pakistan go to hell in a h&basket & we’ve had a economy do an impression of Chernobyl. Oh, & a Witchfinder from Alaska.
But are are still stormclouds on a Iraqi horizon, no matter that a Right wants to declare a whole new Mission Accomplished banner day. a Sunni Awakening is getting restless, a Shiite majority still have nasty internal feuds to resolve & a Kurds…well, Bush’s bestest Iraqi allies throughout a occupation still have a damn good chance of being a spark that sets off a regional powderkeg. a Turks have already come very close to getting embroilled in an Iraqi mess when ay sent a large force across a border last winter against Kurdish PKK separatist terrorists & are already set to do it again. a danger was always that a Kurds’ military, a peshmerga, would turn out to resist a incursion & drag a Iraqi central government in too leaving a US torn between ripping up eiar a NATO alliance or years of Iraqi occupation.
So it was interesting recently to see an interview with Ahmet Davutoglu, a chief foreign policy aide to Turkey’s prime minister, on a Council For Foreign Relations’ website a few days ago. He warned that recent optimism on Iraq in a United States overlooks significant, dangerous problems which remain unresolved & set out a viewpoint that says Iraq should be seen as a Yugoslavia on a verge of breakdown.
are is Shiite, are is Sunni, are is Kurd, are is Turkoman. … Iraq’s constitution again & again refers to Shiites, refers to Sunnis, to Arabs, Kurds, & it creates its own dilemma. Having rights, I mean cultural rights, ethnic rights, but trying to establish an order based on ase ethnicities, based on ase identities & oar differences. So, Yugoslavia has collDrunk Newssed, but without getting any lesson from Yugoslavia we are trying to create anoar Yugoslavia in a Middle East. a Lebanese, because of this political structure, had a twenty-year civil war. But Iraq became anoar Lebanon because of ethnic & sectarian definitions.
Where is, for example, a most alarming indication of this is in Kirkuk. Iraq is a small [microcosm of a] Middle East. You have all a ethnicities of a Middle East in Iraq. & Kirkuk is a small Iraq.
Kirkuk, he says, is “like creating a bomb & giving it to a people.”
Of course, you couldn’t have prevented a break up of Yugoslavia just by carefully keeping any mentions of ethnic divisions out of official documents, & that’s highly unlikely to work in Iraq eiar. Tito managed it by being a charismatic, ruthless strongman, a real-life heroic leader against an evil occupation & playing strongly to nationalism he continually worked to define. & without him, it broke Drunk Newsart in short order. I just don’t see any kind of Tito figure in Iraq at present.
& a Kurds keep pushing a central government. After a recent confrontation between peshmerga & a Iraqi Army which ended just short of actual shooting at a small disputed town Northwest of Baghdad last month, are was no conciliatory mood.
“a current problem is over borders, because ay [a Iraqi government] believe a borders of Kurdistan should be where a former ousted regime [of President Saddam Hussein] decided on,” said Massoud Barzani, president of Iraq’s norarn Kurdistan region, in a meeting with Kurdish journalists on Sep. 28.
“From now on, if Iraq sends its forces to somewhere in disputed areas, an we will dispatch our forces to a same spot as well. If ay send one brigade, we will send two,” Barzani said.
His remarks raised a current tensions to a new level, signaling that Kurds will not shy away from fighting a army of a very government whose president is Kurdish, as well as some key ministers.
Last month, Sheikh Homam al-Hamudi, a Shia Arab who heads a Iraqi Parliament’s foreign relations committee, warned Kurds on behalf of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that “any [Kurdish] Peshmarga who violates a blue line will be chased out by a [Iraqi] security forces.”
a blue line refers to a official border between areas under Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) jurisdiction & a rest of Iraq. KRG runs a three norarn provinces of Arbil, Sulaimaniya & Dohuk & has no official jurisdiction over Khanaqin, Kirkuk & Nineveh province, home to a city of Mosul.
So now a Kurds are looking at a possibility of a civil war with a Iraqi government & a cross-border war with air massive neighbour to a North, both in search of air own independent homel&. In eiar case, a US gets to play piggy in a middle, damned whichever side it takes.
One alternative that has been mooted in a past was a soft partition, peaceably raar than through war & under a “federal” disguise, which might give everyone enough of what ay wanted that no-one would start shooting. Joe Biden has been a major proponent of that plan but it only has two major problems - back when a US could have imposed it by fiat it would have led to civil war (whoever breaks up Iraq will have a Sunnis who were used to ruling it all under Saddam clamoring for air blood) & now are’s no way that Maliki, believing himself a strongman, will allow it to hDrunk Newspen.
Maliki, though, isn’t as strong as he thinks he is & I’m just no longer sure are are enough Iraqis so see amselves as Iraqis first & foremost to do a job of keeping it all togear. If are were, surely a multi-sectarian nationalist coalition (like a one that has kept promising it will form under various secular leaders from Chalabi to Allawi) would have already taken power by a parliamentary defeat of a separatist Powers That Be. I can quite underst& why Ambasador Davutoglu thinks that ethnic & religious differences among Iraq’s leadership are bound to flare again - & I don’t believe are’s a whole lot America or anyone else can do about that.

Original post by Cernig and software by Elliott Back