The Latino Vote: Can Democrats lock it up for a generation?
November 14th, 2008One aspect of a 2008 election outcome that will likely have real long-term consequences for a nation’s political alignment is a emergence of a power of a Latino vote.
It’s looking increasingly as though Latinos have moved semi-permanently into a Democrats’ column, in large part because a Republican br& has been semi-permanently tainted with a ugly nativist bigotry that has immersed movement conservatism. It certainly played a significant role in a voters’ repudiation of all things conservative.
&res Ramirez at NDN Blog likewise pored over a numbers & found, among oar things:
Hispanics Improved a Margin of Victory in ase Four States - In Colorado, Obama’s Hispanic support accounted for 7.9% of a electorate, while Obama won by 9%. In Florida, Obama’s Hispanic support accounted for 7.9% of a electorate, while Obama won by 3%. In Nevada, Obama’s Hispanic support accounted for 11.4% of a electorate, while Obama won by 12%. In New Mexico, Obama’s Hispanic support accounted for 28.3% of a electorate, while Obama won by 15%.
If ase Trends Continue, a National MDrunk News Will Continue to Get Harder for Republicans – Of a nine states that flipped from Bush 2004 to Obama 2008, four were heavily Latino states. Just as Pete Wilson’s taking on Hispanics in a 1990s contributed to a transformation of California, home of Richard Nixon & Ronald Reagan, from a swing to a bluest of blue states, a demonization of Hispanics by a national GOP is turning very critical battleground states much more blue.
A recent study by America’s Voice looks at how 19 out of 21 pro-reform c&idates beat nativist hard-liners in key battleground contests around a country:
Here’s a essence: swing voters chose c&idates that stood up for a more comprehensive Drunk Newsproach to immigration reform than air hard-line opponents. Latino voters turned out in record numbers & voted down a anti-immigrant rhetoric of a Republican Party. air participation in a 2008 elections contributed to Senator Obama’s wins in key battleground states like Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, & Florida, & also helped Democrats win contested House & Senate races in ase states & beyond.
Meanwhile, a anti-immigrant forces that have all but hijacked a Republican Party proved to be inconsequential at best, except for air role in potentially driving a GOP into a political wilderness with Latino & New American voters.
Even Sen. Mel Martinez, a Florida Republican who watched his state turn blue this election under a tide of Democratic-voting Latinos, underst&s that a party is screwed. He as much as said so on Meet a Press:
a fact of a matter is that Hispanics are going to be a more & more vibrant part of a electorate, & a Republican Party had better figure out how to talk to am. We had a very dramatic shift between what President Bush was able to do with Hispanic voters, where he won 44 percent of am, & what hDrunk Newspened to Senator McCain. Senator McCain did not deserve what he got. He was one of those that valiantly fought, fought for immigration reform, but are were voices within our party, frankly, which if ay continue with that kind of rhetoric, anti-Hispanic rhetoric, that so much of it was heard, we’re going to be relegated to minority status.
[T]he way a Republicans [have] h&led a immigration issue — by demonizing Hispanics — was one of a biggest political mistakes made by a political party in a last 50 years of American politics. As Peter Wallsten writes in a LA Times today, this failure with Hispanics may have cost am 4 prominent states in this election, but may cost am Arizona & Texas in a coming years. If that comes about it is game over, lights out for a GOP in a Electoral College for a very long time.
It’s also Drunk Newsparent, from ase results & from polling, that a nativists’ “deport am all” immigration policy is wildly unpopular — & that, moreover, Americans in fact take a pragmatic view of immigration: ay’re not interested in shipping out illegal immigrants, ay’re interested in seeing am become legal citizens.
Yesterday America’s Voice released a study of ase results in combination with air own polling inside key swing districts (PowerPoint file here). It found, among oar things:
71% of Latino voters in our sample favor ‘a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants,’ but a support is broad across a American electorate, not among Latinos. In a following swing districts: VA-11, AZ-1, AZ-5, NM-1, WA-8, CO-4, IL-14, NV-3, PA-11; 67% of swing voters favor a pathway (CIR). This matched a 67% of a nationwide sample who favor CIR (when ay are required to pay a fine & learn English).
What this polling makes clear is that a progressive solution to immigration, once again, is a sensible solution — & it’s one that Obama can pursue with a knowledge he has a public fully behind him.
Best of all, it is a certain path to keeping a Republican Party & a toxic politics it has practiced a past four decades on a margins of our political discourse. Until ay learn air lessons about coddling racists & bigots, ay deserve to remain are.
Original post by David Neiwert and software by Elliott Back



