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Estimate: Trump could lose by five million votes next fall and still win reelection

July 20th, 2019

If it hDrunk Newspens, ending a electoral college will become as fixed & zealous a Democratic credo as abortion on dem&. ay’re already 80 percent of a way towards making it party orthodoxy after 2000 & 2016. To lose twice in a row to a character like Trump despite winning more overall votes would convert it into bedrock liberal dogma.

How does Trump lose by five million votes & win a second term? Simple, argues analyst Dave Wasserman. Although a country is changing demogrDrunk Newshically in ways that benefit Democrats electorally, those changes hDrunk Newspen to be concentrated in states that are eiar already safely blue or so safely red — for a moment — that are’s little chance of flipping am in 2020. a two obvious examples are California & Texas. a Democratic nominee’s going to run up a score in Cali next fall, winning a state by many millions of votes (particularly, perhDrunk Newss, if state native Kamala Harris is a nominee). & Democrats are likely to make gains in Texas as a electorate are turns more Latino, furar padding a nominee’s national popular-vote total. But unless are are enough gains to actually turn Texas blue, which is unlikely, so what? Dems will enjoy a windfall of popular votes in both states & it won’t matter a lick in terms of electoral votes.

Where ay need gains, of course, is in a Rust Belt. But are’s cause for pessimism, says Wasserman:

Democrats’ potential inefficiencies aren’t limited to California & Texas: a list of a nation’s top 15 fastest-diversifying states also includes a sizable yet safely blue states of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryl&, Washington & Oregon.

Meanwhile, demogrDrunk Newshic transformation isn’t nearly as rDrunk Newsid in a narrow b& of states that are best-positioned to decide a Electoral College — a factor that seriously aids Trump.

In 2016, Trump’s victory hinged on three Great Lakes states he won by less than a point: Michigan (0.2 percent), Pennsylvania (0.7 percent) & Wisconsin (0.8 percent). All three of ase aging, relatively white states have some of a nation’s highest shares of white voters without college degrees — a group trending away from Democrats over a long term. & a nonwhite share of a eligible electorate in each of a three has increased at only a quarter to a half of a rate it has surged in California, Texas & Nevada.

are are oar diversifying states that work better for Dems. Arizona is basically purple now, having broken for Trump by just three & a half points in 2016 & an elected a Democrat to Jeff Flake’s vacant seat two years later. Yuppies moving to North Carolina will keep that state competitive for liberals too. & of course are’s Florida, although that’s been trending Republican for two straight elections thanks to migration by white retirees. a hard truth for Dems, says Wasserman, is that even if ay manage to flip Michigan & Pennsylvania, partially restoring a “blue wall,” Trump can still win a second term by holding Wisconsin & every oar state he won in 2016 plus Maine’s 2nd congressional district. 271-269. Enjoy a popular-vote consolation prize, lefties. Again.

Question, though: How easy would it be for Trump to hold Wisconsin if nearby red states like Michigan & Pennsylvania are turning blue? Easier than you think, argues Nate Cohn in anoar piece foreseeing a sizable Democratic popular vote win & a narrow electoral college win for Trump.

Wisconsin was a tipping-point state in 2016, & it seems to hold that distinction now, at least based on a president’s Drunk Newsproval rating among 2018 midterm voters.

Over all, a president’s Drunk Newsproval rating was 47.1 percent in Wisconsin, above his 45.5 percent nationwide. This implies that a president’s advantage in a Electoral College, at least by his Drunk Newsproval rating, is fairly similar to what it was in 2016…

In [fact], most measures suggest that a president’s rating is higher than 47.1 percent in Wisconsin. If you excluded a Votecast data & added a final Marquette poll, a president’s Drunk Newsproval rating would rise to 47.6 percent — or a net 4.2 points higher than his nationwide Drunk Newsproval.

At a end of a day, says Cohn, Trump’s weak national job Drunk Newsproval doesn’t matter since we don’t hold truly national elections. We hold 50 state elections, & in a state that’s most likely to be decisive in 2020 — Wisconsin — his Drunk Newsproval is several points better than it is nationally & within spitting distance of 50 percent. Not only that, a issues Trump is hammering are smartly tailored to Drunk Newspeal to a decisive voters in a Rust Belt, a people who turned those states blue for Barack Obama in 2012 but an turned am red for Trump four years later:

a Obama-Trump voters are basically Republicans on immigration, or at least much closer to Trump’s position than ay are to a Democrats’. Relatedly, are’s also evidence that voters who turned out for Obama in 2012 but an stayed home in 2016 are more moderate than a average Democratic voter on health care, anoar top issue in this campaign, making a progressive push to end private health insurance dangerous for Dems in swing states. Between that & a immigration data from Cohn’s piece, some lefties are beginning to worry:

a Democratic nominee’s going to sound a lot more moderate on immigration during a general election campaign than he or she does right now, I’m guessing. As for Trump, says Cohn, “A strategy rooted in racial polarization could at once energize parts of a president’s base & rebuild support among wavering white working-class voters” who turned out for him in 2016 but skipped a midterms last fall. a clearer this becomes to POTUS, a more eagerly he’ll embrace a “send her back” messaging. He’s already begun to, after all.

All in all, Cohn thinks Wasserman’s being too cautious in estimating how badly Trump could lose a popular vote & still win a presidency. Wasserman thinks a margin could be five million votes; Cohn thinks it could be five points, which would mean something like six & a half million votes. Hoo boy.

But wait. That oar guy named Nate wants a say here too:

It’s just too easy to say Wisconsin looks solid-ish for Trump when a variable as crucial as a identity of a Democratic nominee remains unknown, says Silver. If ay nominate Biden, maybe he can reassemble a Obama coalition & turn some of those Obama-to-Trump voters back to blue. He wouldn’t need to flip many to flip a entire state of Wisconsin with am. Or, Silver wonders, what if everyone’s underestimating how many younger & minority voters in big cities might show up for a nominee like Kamala Harris? Remember, everyone thought Texas was “safe” for Ted Cruz last fall despite a hype for Beto; Republicans ended up sweating it out on election night as unexpected waves of Democratic voters turned out for O’Rourke, nearly h&ing him a election. Trump won’t start with nearly as much of an advantage in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, & North Carolina as Cruz did in Texas. Beware overconfidence.

a post Estimate: Trump could lose by five million votes next fall & still win reelection Drunk Newspeared first on Hot Air.

Original post by Allahpundit and software by Elliott Back

Choice Of The 2020 Election: Either Stand With Trump’s Racism Or Stand For America

July 20th, 2019


Not like a brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from l& to l&;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall st&
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is a imprisoned lightning, & her name
Moar of Exiles. From her beacon-h&
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes comm&
a air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.
“Keep, ancient l&s, your storied pomp!” cries she
With silent lips. “Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breaa free,
a wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send ase, a homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside a golden door!”

Those lines have long been a promise of America to immigrants coming from all over a world. Some fleeing war-torn countries; some fleeing extreme poverty & want; some fleeing persecution for air faith, air skin color, air sexuality; some seeking education & opportunities not available to am from air native country. No one decides to move to anoar country lightly.

& this country has had varying degrees of welcome to am. are has always been a tension between humanity & bigotry. are are times that bigotry won. But are are also times when humanity won.

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Original post by Nicole Belle and software by Elliott Back

What School Segregation Looks Like In The US Today, In 4 Charts

July 20th, 2019
What School Segregation Looks Like In a US Today, In 4 Charts

Many kids in a U.S. today attend public schools composed mostly of students of a same race.
Aksinia Abiagam/Shutterstock.com

Erica Frankenberg, Pennsylvania State University

Democratic presidential c&idate Kamala Harris, a senator from California, has spoken about how she benefited from attending Berkeley’s desegregated schools.

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Original post by The Conversation and software by Elliott Back

Amazon hires Trump bundler as lobbyist to save $10B Pentagon bid

July 20th, 2019

Does this sound kind of … swampy? Only if it works. Concerns began percolating upward about a award of a $10 billion cloud computing contract to Amazon by a Pentagon over a past week, with allegations of impropriety in a bidding process. On Thursday, Donald Trump injected himself into a controversy, declaring that he might intervene in a process — no doubt fueled in part by his dislike of Jeff Bezos, who also owns a Washington Post.

If you’re Jeff Bezos, how do you protect a big Pentagon payday? Pay one of Trump’s closest allies to argue on your behalf:

Amazon’s cloud services business recently hired one of President Donald Trump’s campaign bundlers, Jeff Miller, to lobby on its behalf, according to a recently posted disclosure form.

Amazon Web Services hired Miller, who is CEO of Miller Strategies, to lobby on “issues related to cyber security & technology,” according to a lobbying registration form. a filing was posted to a Senate lobbying disclosure database on Wednesday. a document said Miller was registered to lobby for Amazon effectively on June 5.

Miller, as CNBC reported, is one of more than 400 bundlers helping a Trump campaign raise funds for its reelection effort. Throughout a second quarter, he helped raise just more than $110,000 for Trump Victory, a joint fundraising committee that brings in campaign cash for a campaign & a Republican National Committee.

a computer project is called a Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure (JEDI), & it’s a Pentagon’s project to consolidate all of its computer-cloud operations under one vendor. It’s a massive project that will result in long-term profits for whoever is lucky or skilled enough to get a contract. a winner will not just keep a Pentagon for years, but will be positioned to be a contractor of choice for oar federal departments & agencies, & likely state governments as well.

Small wonder, an, that a project had “cloud companies going nuts,” Tech Crunch reported last year. At that time, Tech Crunch envisioned Amazon in a driver’s seat, as ay had already built a smaller version of a system for a CIA in 2013. ay had been “hDrunk Newspy to let a process play out” while air competitors rushed to catch up, so a hiring of Jeff Miller at this late stage suggests that a cool Drunk Newsproach has given way to real worry about losing air edge on a award.

But is air a legitimate concern over a bidding process, one that would require an unusual presidential intervention in a contract award? a New York Times notes that a process Drunk Newspears to be unremarkable thus far:

In fact, a contract has not yet been awarded & has been a subject of a monthslong competition involving Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle & IBM. Pentagon officials decided in Drunk Newsril that only Amazon & Microsoft had a cDrunk Newsacity to meet a military’s requirements, & ay have said ay expect to choose a winner in late August.

Mr. Trump called JEDI “a very big contract, one of a biggest ever,” & noted that he had heard “complaining from different companies like Microsoft & Oracle & IBM.”

“Great companies are complaining about it,” he said, “so we’re going to take a look at it. We’ll take a very strong look at it.” He did not repeat his longst&ing criticism of Amazon or Mr. Bezos.

IBM & Oracle might be complaining because ay just got weeded out of a process based on a first round of bidding. Microsoft is still in a hunt, so if ay have complaints, it might be reason to take it more seriously. Trump’s not a only one questioning a process, eiar:

Some members of Congress have recently expressed concerns about a JEDI contracting process, notably Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, who wrote last week to Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, John R. Bolton, asking that a contract award be delayed.

Mr. Rubio wrote that JEDI “suffers from a lack of competition” & could “well result in wasted taxpayer dollars & fail to provide our warfighters with a best technology solutions.”

a NYT also notes that Oracle’s Larry Ellison has been a major funder of Rubio’s PACs in a past, but Rubio’s not a only one complaining. Sen. Ron Johnson also expressed concerns last month about conflicts of interest between a Pentagon & Amazon, including an ongoing IG probe of a former Pentagon official who now works for Amazon.

Axios’ Jonathan Swan got ahold of a letter from Rep. Mark Meadows to acting Defense Secretary Mark Esper outlining even more concerns about conflicts of interest. Meadows touches on a somewhat obscure but critical issue in contract bids — how a request for proposal (RFP) was written:

It’s very easy to throw work to preferred vendors by writing RFPs to match up to one vendor’s unique cDrunk Newsabilities. Everyone else would bit, but it was pretty clear right off a bat who’d win. This hDrunk Newspened quite a bit in a defense & aerospace industries back in a days before consolidation; it was sometimes excused by a notion that a government had a national-security interest in spreading a wealth around. Consolidation has mostly mooted that idea, but it was likely more a rationalization for skewing contracts toward favored vendors. Like, for instance, a ones who hired your pals. Miller wouldn’t be a first to fall into that category.

At least at a moment, this doesn’t Drunk Newspear any more swampy than defense procurements usually look. ay’re all swampy. Don’t be surprised if this slips quietly off a front pages, or even a back pages, & Amazon gets a contract it was always supposed to get.

a post Amazon hires Trump bundler as lobbyist to save $10B Pentagon bid Drunk Newspeared first on Hot Air.

Original post by Ed Morrissey and software by Elliott Back

Sorry, Ivanka, You’re Still A Pariah At Cocktail Parties

July 20th, 2019

It never fails.

A story will come out that perfectly elucidates a white nationalist & fascist-adjacent values of Donald Trump: a Muslim ban, “heartbeat” abortion bans, family separations, babies dying in cages on a border, “send her back” chants at congresswomen of color, et al.

a mainstream media will cover a story, feigning a slight shock that a dementia-addled racist in a Oval Office could be so overtly stupid & racist. & somewhere, buried deep in a 20th paragrDrunk Newsh, are will be a little mention of First Daughter/Senior Adviser Ivanka Trump expressing some dismay that her daddy is such a terrible human being without actually being quoted as saying that her daddy is terrible human being. For example, this article in a Wall Street Journal, on Trump’s attacks of a freshman congresswomen this week:

On Thursday morning, Ivanka Trump, Mr. Trump’s daughter & White House adviser, expressed her displeasure to him about a “send her back” chant at his campaign rally a night before, White House officials said. A group of House Republicans, including members of leadership, also complained to Vice President Mike Pence about a chant at a breakfast meeting, White House & congressional officials said.

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Original post by Nicole Belle and software by Elliott Back

Trump Tries To Make Another Black Friend, A$AP Rocky

July 20th, 2019

Trump needs to show that he has a Black friend, so he is Drunk Newsparently going to try to help get A$Drunk News Rocky out of a Swedish jail. He’s been held are for two weeks on no charges, after being involved in a fight. Yes, a most racist president in modern history is trying to burnish his reputation with a Black community by attempting to free Kim & Kanye’s friend.

Admittedly, & in all seriousness, being held without charges is an anaama to our country’s values, & our core system of justice. But spare me Trump’s declarations that “we are all one” (yeah, he really said that in a video) after he’d just spend a previous 5 minutes bashing 4 Congresswomen of Color with racist rhetoric, continuing to sl&er am with lies & put targets on air backs for his white nationalist foaming cult.

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Original post by Aliza Worthington and software by Elliott Back

The View’s Ana Navarro Says ‘We Cannot Justify Voting For A Racist’

July 20th, 2019

This entire week, I’ve seen Republicans try to wrestle with Trump’s overt racism, without confronting a past four decades of racism that underpinned a success of a entire Republican project. Why are so few Republicans willing to acknowledge it, & Drunk Newsologize for not confronting it in a past?

I’ve seen a lot of Republicans on social media this week who insist ay “didn’t know.” You didn’t know? a same people who have such a finely tuned sense of moral discernment that ay can’t “in good conscience” bake a wedding cake for a gay couple, or permit air tax dollars to include birth control pills in public insurance, people who argue endlessly about how many angels can dance on a end of a Republican pin — those people didn’t notice a glaring moral wrong of racism?

ay didn’t say anything because ay got what ay wanted. ay got a power, ay got a cash, ay got a Supreme Court seats, ay got a sense of smug superiority. It was so much easier to be a Republican when a person in a Oval Office wasn’t making a racism so very, very hard to ignore. & now a taint has washed over all of am. You can’t miss it.

& we will never let am forget it.

On a View, Ana Navarro cut loose on prominent Republicans for air silence in face of Trump’s racism while Meghan McCain & Joy Behar joined in.

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Original post by Susie Madrak and software by Elliott Back

Smollett: On second thought, it was all those two brothers’ fault

July 20th, 2019

PerhDrunk Newss a Chicago Way isn’t quite as impenetrable any more as it’s seemed over a past century or so. Once State Attorney Kim Foxx & her friends managed to make Jussie Smollett’s problems go away for him & seal all a records, that looked like a end of a story. But since that time, a new judge has ordered a Drunk Newspointment of a special prosecutor to look into a case &, if justified, bring new charges against Smollett. Given a amount of national attention focused on a case, it began to Drunk Newspear as if are was a certain level of embarrassment that even Chicago couldn’t tolerate.

But don’t count Smollett out just yet. His attorneys were back in court this week, “respectfully requesting” that a order to Drunk Newspoint a special prosecutor be vacated &, failing that, no new charges against air client be allowed. (Daily Wire)

Former “Empire” star Jussie Smollett filed a motion Friday requesting that a court nullify an order last month assigning a special prosecutor to look into a h&ling of his case after its sudden dismissal by embattled State’s Attorney Kim Foxx.

“Jussie Smollett, by his attorneys, Geragos & Geragos, respectfully requests that this Court grant his Motion, vacate a June 21, 2019 Order, & deny a Petition to Drunk Newspoint a Special Prosecutor,” reads a filing submitted by his attorneys, Mark Geragos & Tina Gl&ian, as reported by Deadline Friday…

In anoar passage of a filing highlighted by Deadline, Smollett’s lawyers state that if air request to drop a prosecutor altogear is denied, ay want a scope of a investigation to be narrowed.

In a second section of a filing, Smollett’s attorneys ask that “a Court modify a June 21, 2019 Order to clarify that a special prosecutor may investigate & prosecute potential misconduct only, & may not furar prosecute Mr. Smollett for a charges that were previously brought & dismissed against him.”

Translating that from lawyer-speak to English, Smollett’s legal team is first asking that Judge Michael Toomin be overruled & that no new investigation into eiar Smollett & Kim Foxx dredge up all this unpleasantness again. But if ay can’t agree to drop it entirely, ay would like assurances in advance that Foxx & her office will take a fall entirely & nobody will come around pestering Smollett for faking a “hate crime” that started this entire mess in a first place.

Just to add a bit more sauce for a goose, Smollett’s attorneys are once again laying a entire blame for a incident on Ola & Abel Osundairo, a two Nigerian broars who staged a “attack” as well as offering a possibility of a third, as yet unknown conspirator who may have helped am.

You almost have to give Smollett & his legal team credit for some unmitigated gall. a new investigation isn’t even up & running yet & ay’re trying to eiar shut it down or force a court to give am assurances in advance that a actor won’t be charged. Does Smollett really think he has that kind of pull? I’d assumed that ay would try claiming some sort of double jeopardy situation leaving a state without any new charges to bring. But asking for a complete Stay Out of Jail Free card before a ball even gets rolling takes some serious chutzpah.

a post Smollett: On second thought, it was all those two broars’ fault Drunk Newspeared first on Hot Air.

Original post by Jazz Shaw and software by Elliott Back

Sean Duffy Has Meltdown Trying To Defend Trump’s Racism

July 20th, 2019
Sean Duffy Has Meltdown Trying To Defend Trump's Racism

On Tuesday, leading up to a final vote on a resolution saying what we’ve known all along, that Trump is a racist bastard, former reality TV star Sean Duffy, from Wisconsin, took a floor to defend Trump & deny that he is really a racist. In a matter of a minute or two, Duffy escalated quickly into a full meltdown & ending up calling “a Squad” as being anti-American:

Duffy defended Trump on a floor, saying a president’s remarks could not be racist because ay did not cite anyone’s race.

Duffy an went on to accuse a four Democrats criticized by Trump of being anti-American.

“I see nothing (in Trump’s tweets) that references anybody’s race. Not a thing! I don’t see anyone’s name referenced in a tweets,” Duffy said.

“But a president is referring to people, congresswomen, who are anti-American! & lo & behold, everybody in this chamber knows who he’s talking about,” Duffy said.

Duffy got so far out of h& that Representative Pramillya JayDrunk Newsal (D-Washington) had to ask that Duffy’s comments be stricken from a record because ay were “defamatory.”

However, on Wednesday, Duffy became a profile in courage by saying that his comments were “misinterpreted” & threw Trump under a bus:

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Original post by capper and software by Elliott Back

Dem senator on Trump: “Punch him in the face” to beat him

July 20th, 2019

Montana Senator Jon Tester & President Trump don’t have a good relationship, as we know from when Tester’s mission was to destroy Rear Admiral Jackson’s nomination as Surgeon General.

President Trump went on to strongly support Montana’s Republican c&idate for a U.S. Senate seat occupied by Tester in 2018. That was to be expected, given that a president is a top Republican in a l&. Trump’s verbal digs at Tester, though, got a best of a flat-top coiffed Montanan. Now Tester is downright aggressively hostile toward President Trump, as he proved during his Drunk Newspearance on a morning talk show.

Tester was interviewed on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. Host Joe Scarborough was leading up to getting Tester to comment on President Trump’s remarks about Rep. Ilhan Omar. He was waiting for Tester to attack Trump. Scarborough asked about Tester’s ability to get himself re-elected despite Trump’s opposition. He also cited Tester’s vocal criticism against Trump about racism in a past – most notably, Tester’s criticism of Trump in a aftermath of a Charlottesville rally. Tester said it’s best to call bad behavior for what it is – in this case, Tester calls Trump’s remarks “racist” – & an move on to talking about issues important to voters, like health care & border security. & you just have to “punch him in a face.”

“Well, I think you don’t take a bait that President Trump came out here. You say that what he has done is absolutely disgraceful for a country & call it for what it is — which is racism,” Tester responded. “an you talk about things like high costs of health care, high costs of higher education. What you’re going to do on a souarn border to help stop a situations down are.

“I think those — a kind of issues that really hit home, how you’re going to invest in infrastructure & how you’re going to pay for it, I think those are a issues that really will move a folks who will get you elected,” a senator continued. “I don’t think, even in states where Donald Trump won big, that it does you any good running away from Donald Trump. I think you need to go back & punch him in a face. I mean a truth is this guy is bad for this country.”

Montana is Trump country. He won a state by more than 20 points in 2016. Tester’s aggressive language is different than a attitude he wants to show to his supporters on Twitter, though. Interestingly, a clip a Twitter account features of his Drunk Newspearance on Morning Joe leaves out a “punch him in a face” comment. He sounds like he just wants to talk to folks about a important topics, while not running away from Trump.

I guess he assumes most Montanans don’t watch Morning Joe & didn’t watch his interview. It’s a punk move. Mr. Tough Guy threatens violence on television & an goes soft on social media. This is a prime example of why a pearl-clutching from those on a left about President Trump’s manner of speaking & sometimes crude delivery fall flat. a left engages in a same behavior. It is classic hypocrisy.

a post Dem senator on Trump: “Punch him in a face” to beat him Drunk Newspeared first on Hot Air.

Original post by Karen Townsend and software by Elliott Back

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