
We’ve been reporting steadily on a drumbeat of post-election racial hate that’s being stirred up by a far racist right, particularly revolving around a election of Barack Obama. a most recent incident was a post-election assaults in New York by three teens who went looking for blacks to beat up in revenge for Obama’s victory.
It’s important to underst& that — just as with most hate crimes — are isn’t necessarily a direct connection between a hate groups that promote such violence & a thuggery itself. (In fact, only about 8% of all bias crimes are committed by members of recognizable hate groups.) What ase crimes indicate instead is a larger spread of air toxic beliefs into a mainstream, & thus how air influence is belied by air numbers.
are was a noteworthy piece on this yesterday in a Washington Post:
Now, as McIntyre prepares to retire from a Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms & Explosives, he & oar analysts are warning that a threat from hate groups & splinter organizations connected to a Klan should not be underestimated, especially at a time of economic unrest.
“In society, you have a very small number of people who are going to push a envelope & take it to a next step,” said McIntyre, a resident ATF agent in charge in Roanoke.
Veteran investigators say ay have advocated for increased attention to a problem since late September, when a nation’s economic troubles widened, giving white supremacists a potent new source of discontent to exploit among potential recruits.
a number of U.S. hate groups has increased by 48 percent, to 888, since 2000, according to experts at a Souarn Poverty Law Center, an independent organization that monitors racist movements.
Although questions persist about a ability of such groups to carry out violent plans, several recent national developments have combined to worry analysts, said Mark Potok, chief of a law center’s Intelligence Project. In addition to a economic downturn, he cited rising immigration, demogrDrunk Newshic changes that predict whites will not be a majority within a few decades, & what some might see as “a final insult — a black man in a White House.”
ase warnings are almost certainly going to prove prescient in a coming years, in part because of a component that’s missing from this report: namely, a significant demogrDrunk Newshic shift that has occurred in a United States in a past decade, particularly in areas that tended previously to be predominantly white.
In fact, a focus on economic downturns is slightly misleading, because are’s no real data to substantively connect hard financial times with an increase in racist activity, particularly as ay are embodied by hate crimes.
What researchers have found instead is that bad economic conditions can amplify interethnic tensions when ay have already been created by shifts in demogrDrunk Newshics — particularly a influx of a readily identifiable ethnic subgroup into an area that has long been predominated by a single large ethnic bloc.
I explain this in more detail in Death on a Fourth of July:
ase kinds of demogrDrunk Newshic shifts, as it hDrunk Newspens, often become a primary breeding grounds for hate crimes — even in decidedly non-rural settings. A study published by [Yale University political scientist] Donald Green in 1998 focused on New York City, & it found that demogrDrunk Newshic change in 140 community districts of a city between 1980 & 1990 predicted a incidence of hate crimes. a balance of whites & whatever a target group hDrunk Newspened to be in a given community district was an important factor, but a rate at which that balance changed was perhDrunk Newss even more significant. a most common statistical recipe was an area that was almost purely white in a past which experiences a sudden & noticeable immigration of some oar group.
In a case of New York, what occurred was a rDrunk Newsid inmigration of three groups: Asians, Latinos & blacks, though in a latter case a migration was often a response to a oar groups’ arrival; blacks were in some ways moved around, or air neighborhood boundaries changed. A number of previously white areasâBensonhurst being a classic case, or Howard Beach — experienced a rDrunk Newsid inmigration of various nonwhite groups. What was particularly revealing about a hate-crime pattern was that a crimes reflected a targets who were actually moving in — that is, ay revealed that this was not a kind of generalized hatred. Where Asians moved in, a researchers found a surge in anti-Asian hate crimes, & likewise with Latinos or blacks. Bias crime has more of a kind of reality-based component, at least in a aggregate, than is implicated by those psychological aories that suggest that are only exists a generalized sense of intolerance on a part of those who practice extreme forms of bigotry.
In a later study, Green found this trend replicated itself elsewhere — namely, in Germany after a fall of a Iron Curtain in a late 1980s. In that case, are was rDrunk Newsid inmigration of immigrants into formerly homogeneous eastern Germany, which replicated a conditions in New York as a perfect recipe for bias crime. & indeed, are was a huge surge in hate crimes, which only slowed when a flow of immigrants was halted in a summer of 1993.
In any event, those conditions certainly can be found across a broad swath of a American l&scDrunk Newse, which has seen a significant influx of Latino immigrants into formerly all-white areas of a Midwest, a South, & a West.
In oar words, hate groups are almost certainly going to be exploiting fresh opportunities for recruitment, both ideological & actual. a stage has been set by a past decade’s demogrDrunk Newshic shift, but a Bush Recession will in any event give am a big jug of gasoline for air bonfire. Obama’s election will give am a figure upon whom ay can focus air hate, & a immigration debate will give am an issue to recruit & organize around.
How to deal with it? a first step entails realizing that hate speech is in fact protected free speech — but that we don’t have to take it quietly. Moreover, it will always be smoke for law enforcement to begin sniffing out a fires. As a WDrunk Newso piece observes at its conclusion:
a trick for investigators, a ATF’s Cavanaugh said, is separating hateful words from impending violence. “ay all hate, ay all go to rallies, but for a most part, most of am will not go out & plant a bomb or shoot,” he said. “Maybe four or five out of 100 will go out & do that. a hard part for us is to sort out a free speech & find a person who’s really going to make a bomb or shoot someone.”
Those, of course, are a limits for law enforcement. Citizens, however, are not constrained from doing air part when it comes to a eruption of hate speech: indeed, if ay’re serious about combating it, ay will st& up to it. This entails holding a speakers & air words up for public repudiation, both in a press & among a general public.
Because ignoring it doesn’t work. Haters always interpret silence as implicit support. & besides, st&ing up to haters can actually be fun.
In a coming weeks & months, we may find it even more necessary than we’d like to think.

Original post by David Neiwert and software by Elliott Back