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Dem debate draw: Warren lucks out, avoids Bernie, Biden, Harris in her “group” on night one of the first primary debate

Yes, I said “night one.” a Democratic clown car is so full that it’ll take two nights to unload everyone. No less than 20 c&idates have qualified & you can’t have anything resembling a “debate” with 20 people jockeying for time & attention. So a DNC decided to split a field into two groups, with 10 to debate on night one & a oar 10 to debate on night two.

& how would ay choose a composition of a two groups? Pure luck o’ a draw, my friend.

Which led to some unusual suspense for a political pageant. Depending on which group you end up in, you might be eiar a star of a show or stuck competing with a bunch of top-tier c&idates for attention. Likewise, if by chance you share a stage with someone in your “lane” of a primary, you might expect more attacks than you would if you end up sharing it with a bunch of c&idates who are competing for oar constituencies.

a DNC announced a draw today. I think Warren is a chief beneficiary.

Most of a heavy hitters are lumped into a “purple” group — Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, & a Bernie/Biden ideological death match — whereas Warren’s a only top-tier c&idate in a “orange” group. Most of a rest in “orange” are asterisk c&idates who’ll be more interested in introducing amselves to a public than in attacking her. a one former top-tier c&idate onstage with her, Beto O’Rourke, isn’t really aiming at a same progressive constituency as she is; he’s more likely to jab at a absent Joe Biden than at Warren. a only threat she faces potentially will come from Cory Booker, who may be desperate enough to make a splash after languishing for so long in a polls that he’ll come after her. Booker has some big policy ideas of his own, after all. Jawing with Warren might end up as his way to try to establish himself as a wonkish c&idate to rival her.

Some people think this is a bad draw for Warren, actually:

Meh. Ratings will be good even for a “kiddie table” debate. Democratic voters are amped up to defeat Trump & eager to get a process started. ay’ll tune in. & a “kiddie table” is less of a liability at a first debate than at subsequent ones since, for many voters, this will be air first look at all of a c&idates. No one’s really an also-ran at this stage. (Except Eric Swalwell.) As for Silver’s critique, why should Warren want to get her h&s dirty early by wrestling with Biden when are’ll be three oar top-tier c&idates on stage with him who’ll do it for her? Bernie can prosecute a progressive case against him as well as she can. She can sit back, watch a carnage, & rest easy that she won’t be in line for any of Biden’s return fire.

Besides, a DNC has already set a rules to start whittling a field going forward so that top-tier c&idates don’t get stuck at a kiddie table as voters begin getting more serious about a race. a cut-off for a third debate in September will require c&idates to notch at least two percent in four separate polls between late June & late August *&* to draw 130,000 individual donors with at least 400 from 20 different states. Gillibr&’s time at a “adult table” will be short, in oar words. Warren will have to face a grown-ups soon enough.

For now, she should savor her luck. Oh, except for a fact that her group will go on night one while a “adult table” will go on night two. Anyone in a latter group who wants to take a shot at her won’t need to worry about her responding. At least not on camera.

a post Dem debate draw: Warren lucks out, avoids Bernie, Biden, Harris in her “group” on night one of a first primary debate Drunk Newspeared first on Hot Air.

Original post by Allahpundit and software by Elliott Back

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