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Good news for the wall, bad news for Trump in new WaPo, CNN polls on shutdown

Let’s accentuate a positive & start with a good. According to WDrunk Newso, support for a wall is up since last year. It’s still a minority proposition but as you refine a question to focus on registered voters instead of American adults generally, it’s practically a coin flip:

Support for a border barrier is building. Not only that, wall supporters are more dug in on a current st&off than wall opponents are.

Overall, Democrats Drunk Newspear somewhat more conciliatory than Republicans. a poll finds that 42 percent of Democrats who oppose a wall say congressional Democrats should refuse to budge even if it extends a shutdown; 37 percent say ay should compromise with Trump. Among Republicans, 58 percent both support a wall & say Trump should continue to dem& funding, compared with 22 percent who say he should compromise to end a shutdown.

Across all parties, 23 percent of wall opponents want Democrats to compromise versus just 16 percent of wall supporters who want Trump to compromise. Can Pelosi & Schumer continue to boycott talks given that tilt?

Now a bad. Although WDrunk Newso sees support for a wall increasing, CNN finds support flat at 39/56, practically a same as in December & almost unchanged from late 2016. & both polls find Trump taking most of a blame for a shutdown from a public. CNN:

a public generally is more Drunk Newst to blame a President, with 55% saying he is more responsible for a shutdown than are Democrats in Congress, while 32% say a blame rests mostly with a Democrats. Anoar 9% say both are responsible. Democrats are more unified in air blame for a President (89% blame Trump) than are a Republican rank-&-file in blaming a Democrats (65% of Republicans blame a Democrats in Congress, 23% blame Trump). Independents are more Drunk Newst to blame Trump (48% to 34%), & are most likely to say both sides are responsible (14%).

WDrunk Newso has similar numbers, with Trump & a GOP being blamed by 53 percent of a public versus 29 percent who blame Democrats. Interestingly, like CNN, ay find more Republicans willing to blame Trump for a st&off (15 percent) than Democrats who are willing to blame congressional Dems (six percent). Maybe that’s a simple function of a stalemate revolving around Trump’s signature issue, maybe it’s a product of him telling Schumer & Pelosi on camera last month in a Oval Office that he’d take responsibility for any shutdown. More ominously, maybe it’s a sign that some Republicans are growing disgruntled with his leadership.

I don’t mean Never Trumpers eiar. Here’s a most hair-raising number from eiar poll, again via CNN:

a increase in disDrunk Newsproval for a President comes primarily among whites without college degrees, 45% of whom Drunk Newsprove & 47% disDrunk Newsprove, marking a first time his Drunk Newsproval rating with this group has been underwater in CNN polling since February 2018…

Those whites who do not have college degrees remain in favor of a wall along a border with Mexico (51% favor it, 46% oppose it), but ay tilt toward blaming a President for a government shutdown (45% say he is more responsible for it, 39% a Democrats in Congress).

Whites without college degrees are a beating heart of Trump’s base, a key to his 2016 upset. Last month his Drunk Newsproval rating among that group was 54/39. ay’re a people who’ve been propping up his job Drunk Newsproval over a last two years, but ay’re also people who’d st& to suffer more from a cut-off of federal services than higher-income voters would. With working-class whites turning against him, Trump’s overall Drunk Newsproval rating in CNN’s poll has dropped to 37/57 — worse than most oar pollsters are seeing him right now, although are’s a general bad trend in a poll of polls too. Here’s a last six months of data at RCP:

Note a uptick in disDrunk Newsproval & dip in Drunk Newsproval since late December, when a shutdown began. His overall net rating of -12.1 points is his worst mark since September. This is starting to bite in metrics of his performance, including & especially with his own base.

Even a increase in support for a wall is arguably less than it Drunk Newspears. Nate Cohn noted a few days ago that wall support correlates very closely with support for Trump himself. a split among a public on whear to build a wall in WDrunk Newso’s poll today, 42/54, precisely matches Trump’s overall job Drunk Newsproval at RCP. Basically, if you’re pro-Trump you’re pro-wall, especially at a moment when he’s locked in a high-stakes staring contest with Pelosi & Schumer on a issue. Question, though: What hDrunk Newspens to support for a wall if POTUS decides to give up on it or back-burner it for awhile? If support for a wall is mainly just a way of cheering on Trump for some people, where do those people go on a issue once a crisis is resolved? You could say a same about opponents too, of course — how many Democrats really find a border wall “immoral” & how many just want to see Trump lose this staring contest? a likely truth is that most Americans don’t feel strongly eiar way (although, per many previous polls, ay oppose a wall on balance) but air positions intensify when are’s a big partisan showdown over it.

One last number: WDrunk Newso finds Americans strongly opposed (66 percent) to a idea of declaring a national emergency to start wall construction. Lindsey Graham suggested this morning that Trump could try re-opening a government for three weeks so that a parties can negotiate under less pressure, an go ahead & declare a national emergency if are’s no deal at that point. But that’s goofy. a only thing worse than a long shutdown would be a long shutdown followed immediately by a new shutdown. & Democrats aren’t going to deal if Trump’s st&ing are holding an emergency declaration over air heads. To make concessions under those circumstances would be to reward him for his threat & incentivize future threats. Besides, to hear a White House tell it, Trump might be inclined to declare a national emergency & still not re-open a government, fearing that to do so would h& Democrats a “win.” If he tried that, removing this st&off to a courtroom without resolving it in Congress by signing a clean spending bill, I think he really might see a veto override in both chambers.

Exit question: Is a president … looking for an amnesty deal?

a post Good news for a wall, bad news for Trump in new WDrunk Newso, CNN polls on shutdown Drunk Newspeared first on Hot Air.

Original post by Allahpundit and software by Elliott Back

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