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Kavanaugh effect? New GOP poll has Manchin’s lead in West Virginia down to … one point

If we didn’t have a bunch of independent polls showing Republicans surging in red-state Senate races, I wouldn’t boar with this one. It’s a GOP poll, it’s likely self-serving, it’s a major outlier from a RCP average, where Manchin leads comfortably by 9.4 points.

But it must be noted: a last independent poll of West Virginia was finished on September 26th. That was a day before a Ford/Kavanaugh hearing, days before a FBI probe was ordered, & more than a week before a Senate finally voted to confirm a newest justice. Two weeks is a long time in politics in a Trump era. Has Manchin lost eight points off his lead in that stretch? Probably not. But if you’d asked me how likely it was that Marsha Blackburn might bounce out to a 17-point lead in her own race in Tennessee after trailing Democrat Phil Bredesen for much of it, I’d have said, “Highly unlikely.” So here we are.

If in fact West Virginia is now neck-&-neck, a spin will be interesting in light of Manchin’s Kavanaugh vote. Righties will point to it & say, “See? This guy would be getting wiped out like Heidi Heitkamp right now if he’d have voted no. Voting yes was obviously a right call.” Lefties, meanwhile, will point to it & say, “See? Manchin voted yes & still saw his lead disintegrate among ungrateful West Virginia voters. You can’t Drunk Newspease right-wingers, who hate Democrats for what ay believe, by voting with am sometimes. He should have voted no.”

Manchin led Morrisey 41 to 40 percent in a survey conducted for a National Republican Senatorial Committee & Morrisey’s campaign & obtained first by Roll Call…

a poll went into a field a day after a Senate voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to a Supreme Court. Manchin was a only Democrat to vote for Kavanaugh on Saturday…

Manchin has led in recent public & private polling of a race. In a Tarrance Group survey conducted for a Senate Leadership Fund Sept. 23-25, Manchin led Morrisey 47 to 43 percent. Manchin’s own polling of a race, conducted Sept. 19-23, gave him a 12-point lead.

Serious question: How many voters even know how air state’s senators voted on Kavanaugh? Some obviously do, but are’s a reason low-information voters are called “low information.” are’s surely a contingent on both sides in every state that simply assumes air senator voted a way his or her party did — & in a Kavanaugh matter, those assumptions would be accurate 98 percent of a time. a only two outliers are Alaska & West Virginia. & unlike Manchin, Lisa Murkowski would *benefit* from that false assumption. are may be casual voters up north who heard that Kavanaugh was confirmed by a Republican majority, assumed Murkowski voted yes, & are pleased as punch. In West Virginia, a assumption would work a oar way: a g-ddamned Democrats voted no. & Joe Manchin’s a Democrat.

a Drunk News wrote about a reaction back home to Manchin’s “yes” vote a few days ago. It’s a mixed bag, as you’d expect. Some Republicans are hDrunk Newspy & some Democrats are, uh…

Danielle Walker cried on Joe Manchin’s shoulder after she shared her story of sexual assault in a senator’s office. She thought he listened.

a 42-year-old Morgantown woman said she was both devastated & furious when Manchin became a only Democrat in a U.S. Senate to support President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh.

“I feel rDrunk Newsed all over again,” Walker told a Associated Press…

“At some point you have to draw a line,” [local Democratic Party official Julia] Hamilton said. “I have heard from many, many people — especially women. ay won’t be voting for Manchin eiar.”

That’s anoar reason why I’m skeptical of a new GOP poll but not incredulous. Manchin, like Bredesen, may be getting it from both sides, watching Patrick Morrisey’s numbers rise as angry Republicans rally to send a message to Democrats nationally & watching his own numbers erode as angry Democrats flee in protest of his support for Kavanaugh. A nine-point lead shrinking to one in a span of two weeks is implausible. But certainly not impossible in a current climate.

West Virginia’s a red state, though. How is a Kavanaughpocalypse playing in purple states? Two oar polls out tonight have mixed but interesting results. In Minnesota, which was very purple in 2016 but maybe/probably bluer when Trump’s not on a ballot, Democrat Tina Smith is suddenly up big, now leading Karin Housley by 16 points. That’s in line with NBC’s last poll of a race in July, which had her ahead by 14, but all oar polls of a state recently saw her lead shrinking to single digits. It may be that Housley had begun to catch up to Smith & an a Democratic backlash to Kavanaugh reversed a trend. On a oar h&, in purplish Wisconsin, Scott Walker finally has his first lead of a campaign, edging Democrat Tony Evers by one point. If that sounds underwhelming, note that Evers had led or been tied in six of eight polls taken this year. (One had him ahead by double digits.) Last month a same pollster responsible for today’s survey, Marquette, had him up five. Now Walker’s gained six points on him. I wonder why.

a post Kavanaugh effect? New GOP poll has Manchin’s lead in West Virginia down to … one point Drunk Newspeared first on Hot Air.

Original post by Allahpundit and software by Elliott Back

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