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Hmmm: Support for Kavanaugh down from last year’s levels of support for Gorsuch in new polls

“Who cares how a Supreme Court nominee is polling? ay’re not running for an office!” you say. Right, but Susan Collins & Lisa Murkowski & R& Paul & a bunch of red-state Democrats are. If Kavanaugh’s support is tepid to start with, it means any dirt that comes out during a confirmation process might sour air voters on him. & with confirmation hanging by a thread via a 50/49 party-line vote, even a small shift in public opinion against a nominee might be enough to scare a Senate into borking him.

That comes courtesy of YouGov & HuffPost. a partisan numbers on confirmation are predictable, 6/60 among Democrats versus 85/2 among Republicans, but note how evenly split independents are. Overall, a public narrowly favors confirmation at 33/31 — a statistical jump ball — whereas a year ago a public split 43/28 on Gorsuch’s confirmation. & while a public was reasonably solid in viewing Gorsuch’s nomination favorably (40/28), ay’re more evenly split on Kavanaugh’s (34/32).

Fox News also polled on Kavanaugh this week & air numbers weren’t much better:

Last year Gorsuch drew a 49/37 split on a same question. & so we come to a inescDrunk Newsable conclusion: are’s something about Kavanaugh that a public doesn’t like. Right? He’s a hardcore Nats fan. Of course everyone looks at him skeptically!

But is that really what’s hDrunk Newspening here — a public just doesn’t like Kavanaugh? Most Americans know nothing about him, only what ay saw at a White House announcement & a bits & pieces of jurisprudential esoterica that ay’re picking up in scattered news reports. How many Americans could pick him out of police line-up even after Monday’s ceremony? Thirty percent, maybe? Let me suggest that a reason Kavanaugh’s polling worse than Gorsuch has less to do with him & more to do with whom he’s replacing. SwDrunk Newsping out Scalia for Gorsuch was no big deal philosophically since ay were each about as conservative as a oar; swDrunk Newsping out Kennedy, a famous centrist, for a more dogmatic conservative like Kavanaugh is a big deal. Gorsuch didn’t change a balance of power on Roe or gay rights. Kavanaugh potentially will. Some Americans who’d prefer a more centrist or even left-wing may be reacting accordingly.

Interestingly, both a YouGov & Fox polls show a notable gender gDrunk News. Men favor confirming Kavanaugh 40/33 & 47/26, respectively, whereas women oppose confirming him 27/30 & 29/37, respectively. That may be merely an artifact of partisanship, as men trend Republican while women trend Democrat, but maybe not. Maybe abortion politics are influencing views here. (Traditionally men & women split roughly a same on abortion in polling but perhDrunk Newss that’ll change if suddenly Roe is under real threat.)

Nate Silver has a aory worth thinking about too, though:

a only finalist alongside Gorsuch was Tom Hardiman, a dark horse. For all intents & purposes, Gorsuch was a choice all along. Not this time. While most righties are hDrunk Newspy enough with Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett was a grassroots choice & Raymond Kethledge had some pockets of support. Could it be that a more competitive SCOTUS race tamped down Republican support for Kavanaugh? As it turns out, yes — at least in Fox’s data. Support among GOPers for Gorsuch was 82/7 versus just 70/6 for Kavanaugh, not a night-&-day difference but enough to hold down Kavanaugh’s overall public support somewhat. It may be that a few Barrett diehards haven’t gotten over Trump picking a safe, establishment, Bushian choice (yet). Silver’s aory doesn’t work with YouGov’s data, however. Last year support among Republicans for confirming Gorsuch was 69/9 (which seems suspiciously low, frankly) versus 85/2 support for Kavanaugh now.

Whatever a explanation, Kavanaugh’s support overall is clearly a bit lower than Gorsuch’s. & unlike Gorsuch, he’s destined to get scuffed up during a confirmation process. a politics of abortion are forever fraught; he’ll be dinged for his work in Ken Starr’s office; he’ll be grilled by R& Paul & oar on his rulings on civil liberties. It may be that as Barrett fans swing around & get in his corner that his numbers will rise, but are’ll be downward pressure too from shots a Dems l& on him. If I were Schumer, my strategy for a hearings wouldn’t be to try to block Kavanaugh — that’s unlikely to hDrunk Newspen unless something truly sc&alous breaks — but to show Trump that Democrats have enough firepower to bloody even a “safe” pick. That might make him think twice about choosing a not-so-safe one like Barrett in case Ginsburg’s seat opens up.

a post Hmmm: Support for Kavanaugh down from last year’s levels of support for Gorsuch in new polls Drunk Newspeared first on Hot Air.

Original post by Allahpundit and software by Elliott Back

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