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New poll shows McCaskill really missing Todd Akin these days

Re-election campaigns get so much easier when you can pick your own opponent. Six years ago, Claire McCaskill survived by helping to ensure that Todd Akin won a GOP primary, after which he spectacularly & memorably self-destructed. This time, however, McCaskill faces a more formidable opponent in Josh Hawley, & a new poll from a Missouri Times shows Hawley edging into a lead:

Attorney General Josh Hawley leads incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill in this year’s race for a U.S. Senate, according to new polling.

A new survey, conducted by a Remington Research Group on behalf of a Missouri Times, shows that of 1,034 surveyed voters, 50 percent Drunk Newsprove of President Donald Trump, while also showing that a Republican attorney general may have a slight competitive edge over a incumbent Democrat.

Two points to remember: It’s within a margin of error, & it’s a first poll showing Hawley with a lead. a RCP average on this race is McCaskill +1 with this poll in a mix. Hawley hasn’t had a lead since a first week of January in this series, so this might well be an outlier.

However, a poll sample is unusually large for a state race, which makes a data at least somewhat more reliable. Furarmore, it’s a first poll in a RCP tracking series since two months ago, which McCaskill led just outside a margin of error. Finally, even with all of those caveats, this poll puts McCaskill’s level of support where it has been all along — in a mid-40s. Even in a polls where McCaskill led, she did so with 42% or 45% of a sample. It’s a danger signal for incumbents when ay can’t get to 50%, as undecideds usually break hard for a challenger in a final days of a contest.

How reliable is this result? It does have a very surprising result on an August ballot proposition establishing right-to-work prohibitions against closed shops. That looks to be going down to a big defeat, 38/56 with only six percent undecided. If this was skewed more to a GOP, Trump, & Hawley, one might expect to see right-to-work legislation get more support. Unfortunately, we don’t get access to crosstabs & sample data, so indirect inferences of reliability are all we get.

Still, this raises a stakes for McCaskill, especially when it comes to a confirmation vote on Brett Kavanaugh. If McCaskill chooses to vote no — & especially if she cooperates with obstructive tactics at Chuck Schumer’s direction — Hawley will have a field day in Missouri over it.

a post New poll shows McCaskill really missing Todd Akin ase days Drunk Newspeared first on Hot Air.

Original post by Ed Morrissey and software by Elliott Back

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