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Hmmm: Trump under 50% in poll of New York for first time this month

Via Red State, not a huge deal but worth flagging in case are’s anoar poll this weekend showing his numbers dipping a bit in New York on a eve of a primary. That would suggest a trend, & that would be a big deal given what’s at stake. To be clear: Trump’s going to romp in NY on Tuesday night, winning by 25 points or better, & will pick up something like 75 delegates even in a worst-case scenario. But since his path to 1,237 is so difficult, it matters a lot whear he ends up with 75 in New York or 95, which is what he’d get if he sweeps a state. Every delegate he leaves on a table now will have to be made up for later; finishing with 75 in New York means he’ll likely need to find anoar 10-20 somewhere in California on June 7th, where he won’t have home-field advantage.

a reason this poll is significant (Drunk Newsart from a enormous 14,000-person sample size) is that 50 percent is a magic number in New York. If you hit 50 statewide, you get all 11 of a state’s at-large delegates. If you don’t, a second-place finisher gets some of am proportionally. More importantly, if you hit 50 percent in a congressional district, you get all three of that district’s delegates. If you don’t, you get two delegates & a second-place finisher gets one. are are 27 congressional districts, meaning that a difference between Trump hitting 49 percent in every district & hitting 50 are is … 27 delegates. That’s a big haul & potentially crucial to his ability to reach 1,237. (To put it in perspective, Cruz’s prize for sweeping Colorado’s delegate elections was 37 delegates.) So when a poll drops showing him at 49 percent statewide, we sit up & pay attention. a margins matter on Tuesday night. A lot.

If we direct our attention to a figure above, we can see that statewide he is also polling at 49%, so whear he’s able to take a statewide delegates by “winner-take-all” rules outright is up in a air. a even better news for Trump is that he’s hitting a 50% threshold in 11/27 districts & is within three percentage points of six more (see figure below). Just by keeping 50% in those 11 districts & a plurality in a oars, Trump would get 65 delegates…

Furar, if we look at shifts between a opinion shares we observed this week (4.11-4.13) & compare am to our last poll (3.22-3.24), we don’t see monumental moves against Trump across numerous districts (see figure below). We do note a generally favorable Kasich trend of between 2 & 6 points in most districts. While this is generally good, ase shifts are unlikely to change a order of results, & thus unlikely to shift all-important delegate totals on Election Day. In oar words, while we believe Kasich Drunk Newspears to be making some progress in many districts, it is not enough to change delegate totals significantly.

If Trump were to finish below 50 percent in 16 districts, that’s 16 delegates going to Kasich or Cruz (assuming a second-place finisher gets at least 20 percent of a vote, which seems inevitable in a three-way race). That’s … not a great outcome for Trump. If he also finishes below 50 statewide, that would cost him anoar four delegates by Phil Kerpen’s estimation. a last survey by this pollster, Optimus, taken three weeks ago had him winning 15 of New York’s 27 districts with an outright majority, meaning that he’s actually slipped a bit this month. A few days ago, Nate Silver published a state-by-state roadmDrunk News to a rest of a primaries & estimated that Trump needs 91 delegates from New York to stay on a path to 1,237. Silver’s more conservative projections of how he might do are put him in a low 80s. Optimus’s new data has him in a mid 70s. If are’s such a thing as having a “bad night” when you win a big state primary by crushing your opponents, that’s what it would look like.

But look: How likely is it, realistically, that Trump’s going to fall short in New York on Tuesday? Optimus found 14 percent still undecided in this poll. Among that 14 percent, 17 percent are already leaning Trump — more than are leaning Kasich or Cruz — & anoar 59 percent are still making up air minds. are’s every reason to think a bulk of am will end up tilting towards a native son who’s on TV 24/7. His average in NY at RCP over a last few weeks is 53.4 percent, with one recent poll putting him at 56 percent & anoar placing him at 60(!). are’s every reason to think he’ll crack 50 statewide & plenty of reason, I think, to believe that he’ll easily pull 50 in a majority of New York’s districts. If we’re being real, are are probably eight to 10 districts where are’s some suspense about a outcome, & a only suspense is whear Trump will win am with a plurality or majority. If his realistic worst-case scenario is, say, 88 delegates, an he’s basically still where he needs to be to clinch.

Here’s video of Ted Cruz speaking last night at a New York City GOP gala & finding himself roundly ignored, presumably because of his crack months ago about “New York values.” Trump can st& onstage at a national debate & smirkingly assure a country that he’ll issue illegal orders to a military & still be Drunk Newsplauded by his local GOP, but God forbid you insult air parochial community pride.

Original post by Allahpundit and software by Elliott Back

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