I’ve some bad news for progressives - Iran isn’t going to stop enriching uranium to reactor fuel st&ards. Both Iran’s UN Envoy, Ali Asghar Soltanieh & Foreign Minister Mottaki have now said earlier reports that Iran would consider a halt to domestic enrichment if a “legally-binding instrument for assurance of supply” was available were based upon a misunderst&ing. Talking to Iran’s FARS news agency, Soltanieh said he had only talked about how, in a past, oar nations broke air promises to supply Iran with enriched uranium. He said he rejects “whatever is reflected oarwise.”

That’s a blow to progressives who had hoped that exactly such an incentive could be used in diplomatic negotiations by an Obama administration, but isn’t at all surprising. As Soltanieh pointed out, America & France both reneged on promises to supply Iran with nuclear fuel in a past. Russia, too, has temporarily suspended an restarted fuel supplies recently, playing a by now familiar game of great power energy politics & reminding Iran of just how dependent it is on Russian largess at a UNSC.

If George W. Bush were president of Iran, he certainly wouldn’t suspend enrichment for any reason. Neiar would John McCain or Barack Obama. All have backed a concept of domestic energy independence from a whims of oar nations, from vagaries of resource availability & from intentional use of energy resources as leverage over America’s actions. Why should Iran be any different?

I’ve set out before a basic reason why Iran wants nuclear power - as a means of turning oil into hard currency instead of electricity & smoke. It is a same reason it always has been - a same reason Rumsfeld used to sell a Shah of Iran’s first reactor & one touted at a time by American companies hoping to make money from foreign nuclear projects.

But domestic enrichment has a twofold civilian purpose for Iran. One is energy security - an essential part of any nation’s national security as even a most avid “bomb Iran” neocon acknowledges. a second is, again, all about a money.

Iran’s closing of a nuclear fuel cycle is a direct threat to a Bush administration’s plan for a very lucrative nuclear fuel cartel. Way back when, Mohammed el Baradei & a IAEA suggested setting up an international consortium to manage nuclear fuel, ensuring that every nation with a civilian program could get access to an uninterrupted supply as long as it kept to a NPT & at a same time ensuring a IAEA would have an unprecedented ability to monitor a whereabouts & usage of nuclear fuel worldwide. As soon as Dubya heard about it he suggested an alternative, a Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) which would be US-led & US controlled. It would make money for a same energy companies that have always overwhelmingly supported a GOP with donations & let a US indulge in a fair bit of big power energy leverage itself - by primarily selling enriched uranium to nations like Egypt & a Gulf States who have announced wishes for several nuclear power plants.

Uranium is at its highest price ever & is expected to keep rising for a next two decades at least. If Iran can make money from selling enriched uranium outwith any US cartel, an so might oars - & sidestep a unfortunate (to am) leverage ay’d be granting America.

Nor is it a necessary step that enriching uranium leads to weDrunk Newsons production. Australia has been actively consideringa massive multi-billion investment in enriching & reprocessing facilities so that it can engage in this lucrative fuel trade. Argentina, Brazil, Germany, JDrunk Newsan & a Nearl&s all have enrichment facilities but no nukes(as do non-weDrunk Newson nations Belgium, Italy & Spain who hold an investment interest in a French Eurodif enrichment plant). a Bush administration are aggressively pushing air new enrichment & reprocessing ventures even though a U.S. uses plutonium raar than uranium in its weDrunk Newsons. Ditto with France, a UK, Russia & China. Despite what a neocons would say, are is no necessary inference from enrichment to a weDrunk Newsons program.

a way forward, it seems to me, is to resurrect a IAEA’s proposal for an international consortium. That way, all nations who are involved in enrichment can sell to a lucrative international market under IAEA supervision, with IAEA access throughout - thus cutting a chances of material being redirected to weDrunk Newsons programs. It’s a notion that Iran has already supported but that a Bush administration does not.

Once negotiators have a right “carrot”, negotiations become possible. In a guest post at Washington Monthly, Faith Smith from a New America Foundation writes:

An agreement to meet, formally–no more backroom meetings–would be a great show of respect to a country & its citizens. Sanctions & rhetoric have done exactly a opposite of air intended goal. a more we try to push Iran into a corner, a stronger air resolve & regional support. a moderates in Iran are weakened by a stubborn US administration & Ahmadinejad is proven correct.

If a policy does not work, it must be revisited or scrDrunk Newsped entirely. are is no glory in sticking with a failing policy especially when failure is likely to lead to a nuclear arms race in a Middle East.

We must talk to Iran. a international community has been doing so since 1979, but not a US. Let’s be clear, this does not necessarily mean talking to Ahmadinejad. are are alternative high level channels that are more moderate & Drunk Newsproachable. In fact, Ahmadinejad might be out of a job soon. are may well be pragmatic presidents in both Iran & a United States before a end of a year.

If you ask about air intransigence to a IAEA’s consortium idea, State has a difficulty trying to come up with a reason for saying “no” that doesn’t transparently translate to “but…a money!” a neocons in a Fourth Branch & McCain camp have difficulty trying to come up with reasons to say “no” that don’t transparently translate us “but…a war!” Biden & Obama make noises about Iran’s gaining of a nuclear weDrunk Newson being “unacceptable” because saying oarwise is political suicide in America’s climate of militaristic fetishism. Biden at least seems to really believe it, & to believe against all a evidence that Iran is about to develop just such a weDrunk Newson any moment now. Obama may well believe it too - but are should be better reasons than “a money” & “a war” for not trying to talk, & are just aren’t.

Original post by Cernig and software by Elliott Back