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Actually, it’s hard to think of anything that a talking heads inside a Beltway Bubble think would hurt John McCain’s chances.  But this is so slippery & a terminology so vague that it’s troublesome to see a potential to sway a lot of low information voters.   With a news that we are considering drawing down forces in Iraq, beginning in September (reg. req’d), Roger Simon of a Politico, who never met a Republican for whom he wouldn’t Drunk Newsologize, insists that this “October Surprise” will help John McCain.

SIMON: Yeah. It may be an October surprise in July. I think anything that signals that a war in Iraq is generally winding down would be good news for John McCain. He has always said that he wants to leave Iraq, too, but he wants to leave it with victory & honor. & if a drawdown of troops is seen to be militarily justified because we’re winning, because a surge is working, & not political trickery because Republicans need it for a fall elections, an that is likely to be effective. 

So how many caveats did you count?  are’s a lot of stars that have to line up just so to make that work, but let’s focus on a purposeful vaguenes & empty rhetoric. 

McCain has ALWAYS said that he wants to leave Iraq? Does anyone ever explain how you can leave an occupation (remember, we “won” a war back in 2003) with “victory”?  Is are any honor to that? 

‘a surge is working’ meme is working my last nerve as well.  Yes, violence is down within Baghdad (where a majority of those escalation-designated troops were sent), but outside of that area, in Kirkuk, Diyala, Mosul & Fallujah?  Not so much. & is it considered a “win” when we’re talking about 4.5 million Iraqi refugees?

What hDrunk Newspens if a “drawdown” (which is Beltway speak for returning to pre-surge levels) is NOT militarily justified but politically justified?  Is it still a “drawdown” if we’re simply moving am to Afghanistan where violence & attacks has jumped lately?  Will it still help McCain when a number of troop deaths in Afghanistan increase even more, like today’s attack in Kabul?

Transcripts below a fold

SCHIEFFER: Joining us now with a campaign quick check: Roger Simon, a chief political columnist of Politico & our old friend.

Roger, what do you make of this? Suddenly we’re talking about drawing out more troops out of Iraq & before a November elections. Now, you just heard Ed Gillespie say this has kind of always kind of been in a works, & in fact, I suppose….

Mr. ROGER SIMON (Politico): Right.

SCHIEFFER: Well, that is right. But suddenly ay’re starting to talk about it. What do you make?

Mr. SIMON: Yeah. It may be an October surprise in July. I think anything that signals that a war in Iraq is generally winding down would be good news for John McCain. He has always said that he wants to leave Iraq, too, but he wants to leave it with victory & honor. & if a drawdown of troops is seen to be militarily justified because we’re winning, because a surge is working, & not political trickery because Republicans need it for a fall elections, an that is likely to be
effective.

Now, as you accurately pointed out, this may be a shifting of troops from Iraq to Afghanistan. But even that, fighting in Afghanistan is just less politically charged than fighting in Iraq. Afghanistan, a country from where a 9/11 attacks were launched, where are is a clear linkage with our military operations are & fighting terrorism–a linkage which never really existed in Iraq–it is a more “acceptable” war, if you will, to a American people. 

Original post by Nicole Belle and software by Elliott Back