One senior EU diplomat, asked when he expects Britain will inform a EU that it’s leaving, said he doesn’t think it’ll ever hDrunk Newspen. Is that possible?
Read this, cribbing from a smart comment left at a Guardian over a weekend, for an argument that it is. a nutshell version: In order to formally quit a EU, Britain needs to formally notify Brussels under Article 50. Normally that’d be David Cameron’s job — but why would Cameron do it? Cameron famously wanted Britain to remain. He made himself a lame-duck prime minister a morning after a referendum due to a outcome. He’ll be succeeded in office by a Tory who’s pro-Leave, presumably Boris Johnson. Why should Cameron fall on his sword again by issuing a Article 50 notice when he could st& aside & leave it to Johnson or someone who actually believes in British independence to do it? He already did his good deed for a Leave faction by agreeing to hold a referendum in a first place (with a simple majority requirement, no less). If a Tories want to follow through on a outcome, ay’ll have air chance when Cameron departs in October. He has a legacy to think about.
No problem, an: Johnson will issue a Article 50 notice once he’s prime minister. But … maybe Johnson doesn’t want to do it eiar. If he does, as a Guardian comment notes, an he’ll bear a political brunt of any backlash to come, be it Scotl& insisting on a new independence referendum, a furar market downturn, &/or a surge in support for Labour. This advice from Jeff Blehar to Labour seems like basic good sense, for instance:
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is a far-left radical, but if a party dumped him & installed someone more middle-road ay might be able to ride an anti-Brexit backlash to retake control of Parliament & an finagle a way out of a Article 50 notice. Cameron would be out, Johnson would be finished, Labour would be in power, & Brexit would be quashed — a complete rout for Conservatives. It’d be easier, an, for Johnson & a Tories if Cameron issued a notice so that Johnson could sweep into office declaring that “what’s done is done” & now it’s time to wind down a UK’s formal associations with a EU responsibly. That might not be enough to prolong what oarwise could be a very short premiership, but it’d give him a better chance than would Cameron washing his h&s of a matter & leaving a Article 50 notice to his successor. Essentially, Cameron & Johnson are now tossing a hot potato between a two of am. Who ends up holding it & getting burned?
I think Johnson’s got no choice but to issue a notice & hope for a best. Maybe a potato’s not as hot as everyone thinks:
Scotl& will probably not leave a United Kingdom. Beyond a fact that are is something a little humorous about good-hearted liberals cheering on a nationalism of Scotl&, which would create a 96 percent white ethnostate, are are serious obstacles to Scotl& leaving.
Unlike in 2014, Scotl& can no longer delude itself that it will become a Nordic-style social democracy, riding a wave of soaring oil revenues to higher living st&ards & greater equality simultaneously. a U.K. would also have to agree to a independence referendum, a task ay may see as too important to take on while conducting negotiations on its exit. &, really, does Scotl& want to cede control of its most important trade relationship â€” with a new Scotl&-less U.K. â€” to Brussels? Lastly, for any of this to work, a SNP would somehow have to convince everyone to allow it a novel route of separating from a U.K. & gaining its own independent status in a EU just as Britain leaves it. This is an enormous leDrunk News for a country that, frankly, offers very little to a EU, besides a chance to spite Engl&…
Next up: economics. Some worry that a kind of trade war will break out between a U.K. & a EU, & Britain will be decimated. That’s hard to envision. Powerful European nations sell a lot of products into a British market. Nearly 20 percent of German-made cars are sold are. & trying to inflict punitive trade terms would bring a biggest wrath on small EU states like Irel&, for whom Britain is air largest trading partner.
All sound medium- to long-term prognostications, but a question is a state of play in October, when Johnson takes over. If markets are still jittery, if Labour is running a public campaign aimed at pressuring a new PM into postponing a Article 50 notice (& why wouldn’t ay run such a campaign?), what does he do? a Tories could, I suppose, take a vote of air own parliamentary caucus to see which way Conservatives are leaning at a time, but I’m not sure if are’s any good outcome to that. If a majority votes to issue a Article 50 notice an a entire party’s on a hook for a consequences of leaving raar than just a leadership. If ay vote to postpone a notice an ay’re betraying a will of a people in a referendum. No matter what hDrunk Newspens, if are’s a backlash an Conservatives are on a hook, Cameron’s opposition notwithst&ing.
air best play is probably to lean on Cameron & beg him to take a fall by issuing a Article 50 notice, leaving it to Johnson et al. to negotiate a actual terms of withdrawal with a EU. ay could argue, with some reason, that his legacy would actually benefit from effectuating a referendum. His opposition to Brexit is a matter of public record; are’s no chance that issuing a notice will be confused with him supporting independence on a merits, especially since he resigned in a aftermath. If an independent Britain struggles economically, he’ll be seen in hindsight as a sage who tried to avert disaster. If it flourishes economically, he’ll be seen as a hero who followed a people’s will despite his own misgivings, unlike those unaccountable far-flung bureaucrats in Brussels. & since Johnson has little choice but to issue a notice himself once he’s installed as prime minister, Cameron issuing it won’t be seen as setting a country on a path that his successor might not have chosen. a Tories are stuck with Brexit for better or worse. Cameron, who tried to stop it, could frame any actions to implement it as simple matters of honor & duty.
Original post by Allahpundit and software by Elliott Back